Unfortunately, this publication can"t be printed from the OpenBook. If you should print pages native this book, we recommend downloading and install it as a PDF. Visit juniorg8.com/10766 to get much more information about this book, to buy the in print, or come download it together a complimentary PDF.


You are watching: Which of the following are most unlikely to qualify as driving forces

*

Suggested Citation:"Section 3. Evaluation of control Forces." national Academies the Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Driving forces Influencing Future Freight Flows. Washington, DC: The nationwide Academies Press. Doi: 10.17226/22627.
*

Suggested Citation:"Section 3. Analysis of driving Forces." national Academies that Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Driving pressures Influencing Future Freight Flows. Washington, DC: The nationwide Academies Press. Doi: 10.17226/22627.
*

Suggested Citation:"Section 3. Analysis of steering Forces." nationwide Academies the Sciences, Engineering, and also Medicine. 2013. Driving pressures Influencing Future Freight Flows. Washington, DC: The national Academies Press. Doi: 10.17226/22627.
*

Suggested Citation:"Section 3. Evaluation of driving Forces." national Academies that Sciences, Engineering, and also Medicine. 2013. Driving forces Influencing Future Freight Flows. Washington, DC: The national Academies Press. Doi: 10.17226/22627.
Suggested Citation:"Section 3. Analysis of driving Forces." national Academies the Sciences, Engineering, and also Medicine. 2013. Driving forces Influencing Future Freight Flows. Washington, DC: The nationwide Academies Press. Doi: 10.17226/22627.
Suggested Citation:"Section 3. Analysis of steering Forces." nationwide Academies the Sciences, Engineering, and also Medicine. 2013. Driving pressures Influencing Future Freight Flows. Washington, DC: The nationwide Academies Press. Doi: 10.17226/22627.
Suggested Citation:"Section 3. Evaluation of control Forces." nationwide Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Driving forces Influencing Future Freight Flows. Washington, DC: The nationwide Academies Press. Doi: 10.17226/22627.
Suggested Citation:"Section 3. Evaluation of driving Forces." national Academies that Sciences, Engineering, and also Medicine. 2013. Driving forces Influencing Future Freight Flows. Washington, DC: The nationwide Academies Press. Doi: 10.17226/22627.
Suggested Citation:"Section 3. Evaluation of control Forces." national Academies the Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Driving forces Influencing Future Freight Flows. Washington, DC: The nationwide Academies Press. Doi: 10.17226/22627.
Suggested Citation:"Section 3. Evaluation of steering Forces." nationwide Academies the Sciences, Engineering, and also Medicine. 2013. Driving forces Influencing Future Freight Flows. Washington, DC: The national Academies Press. Doi: 10.17226/22627.
Suggested Citation:"Section 3. Analysis of driving Forces." national Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Driving forces Influencing Future Freight Flows. Washington, DC: The nationwide Academies Press. Doi: 10.17226/22627.
Suggested Citation:"Section 3. Analysis of driving Forces." nationwide Academies the Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Driving pressures Influencing Future Freight Flows. Washington, DC: The nationwide Academies Press. Doi: 10.17226/22627.
Suggested Citation:"Section 3. Analysis of driving Forces." nationwide Academies that Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Driving pressures Influencing Future Freight Flows. Washington, DC: The nationwide Academies Press. Doi: 10.17226/22627.
Suggested Citation:"Section 3. Evaluation of driving Forces." national Academies that Sciences, Engineering, and also Medicine. 2013. Driving forces Influencing Future Freight Flows. Washington, DC: The national Academies Press. Doi: 10.17226/22627.
Suggested Citation:"Section 3. Evaluation of driving Forces." nationwide Academies that Sciences, Engineering, and also Medicine. 2013. Driving pressures Influencing Future Freight Flows. Washington, DC: The nationwide Academies Press. Doi: 10.17226/22627.


See more: You Enter A Bedroom. There Are 34 People. You Kill 30. How Many Are In The Bedroom

Suggested Citation:"Section 3. Analysis of driving Forces." national Academies that Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Driving pressures Influencing Future Freight Flows. Washington, DC: The nationwide Academies Press. Doi: 10.17226/22627.

Below is the uncorrected machine-read message of this chapter, intended to carry out our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Due to the fact that it is UNCORRECTED material, please take into consideration the adhering to text together a helpful but inadequate proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Project NCHRP 20-83(1) Interim Report 1 13 ar 3. Evaluation of Driving pressures While the initial brainstorming session yielded over 1,200 potential crucial factors to consider, many of these were recurring or obvious. That became noticeable that both the certain speakers and also their current situation at work heavily influenced most of the attendees. Because that example, Professor Gershenfeld’s presentation on an individual Fabrication generated countless suggestions of this having actually an affect – but, because we did not have a details presentation top top nanotechnology, no one stated it. Similarly, the rising and also volatile price of oil was an additional common entry – i m sorry is predominately a present concern. However, several potential factors came the end of the analysis of this responses. We harmonized the responses and generated twelve factors that we called photo Scenarios. Every of the photo Scenarios is essentially a bundle of usual driving forces. It is worth noting the the sjuniorg8.comshot Scenarios were formulated as end states rather than trends. Indeed, our endure proves that human being react far better to a description of what the future may look favor rather than a an easy direction it might take. Sjuniorg8.comshot Scenarios The twelve sjuniorg8.comshot Scenarios were: Aging of the US population The bulk of the aging US populace lives alone in non-urban settings and also still has actually very particular product and service needs mutual within their prolonged social network. Women tend to exhibition a willingness to remain involved in the workforce. Rise in global Trade global trade has made the majority of the country strongly interdependent. This leads to higher volatility and extreme swings in GDP growth. Protectionism occurs but is only reactionary and is no permanent. The system is generally sturdy with fluid trading blocks. Rising Power of emerging Markets The dollar and also the Euro have weakened. Arising markets got in affluence and also purchasing power and political stability and financial strength. They are less focused on exporting as a means to grow and also thus, importing more. Worldwide Climate Regulation Climate readjust proved to it is in a fact with increasing sea levels and greater overall temperature. However, the significant disruptions actually stemmed native the higher variability in weather solution leading to more extreme and also abrupt manifestations. A feeling of urgency shared across developing and developed nations led come the creation of a an international Environment council redefining company rules and also regulations internationally in alignment with the WTO.

Project NCHRP 20-83(1) Interim Report 1 14 rise of Protectionism following the COP15 debacle and a much longer than anticipated recession, countries reacted by elevating tariffs and duties to safeguard their very own industries. When the united state tried to conserve the WTO, inner debates in between the states brought about the US additionally adopting protectionist measures – sealing the fate the WTO. Brand-new Technology: personal Fabrication sustained by the fix up high-tech tools, personal fabrication has come to be a reality. Open-source design and also social network communication empower human being with creating the commodities that ideal reflect their personal universe and also needs. Although more manufacturing will be done locally in the US, automation boundaries the number of jobs created. New Technology: The Senseable Network Cheap wireless modern technology enables ubiquitous visibility of sensors ~ above products, vehicles and the infrastructure. This enables collection, infection and evaluation of multiple qualities such as temperature, humidity, location, etc. Boost in Sustainability Regulations number of layers of every encompassing regulation at the international, federal and also state level room enacted. This regulations cover in ~ varying levels social responsibility, environmental emissions, resource usage, and also trade practices. This results in a patchwork of regularly conflicting rules and also penalties. Increase in Sustainability customer Demand customer demand for sustainable assets is a fact led by different segments the the population including aging baby-boomers, young mothers, etc. This is further fueled by innovative technology that enables consumers to do real-time decision at the allude of purchase. Climb in an international Security pertains to Due to heightened security concerns, federal regulations now requires 100% scanning and tracking of every flows within and throughout the country. These procedures require state-of-the-art an innovation that is both time-consuming and also costly. Increase in Commodity prices and ease of access Unreliable supply or unpredictable demand has brought about dramatic increase in volatility and also price of commodities to incorporate oil, metals, grain, etc. Financial sectors have more exacerbated the case and brand-new technologies have actually failed to settle the issue. Added Points of Entry open Up The Panama Canal is completed. The Northwest i is now open throughout summer. Manufacturing is no longer concentrated in the Pacific rim as regions such together Africa have arised as reliable suppliers for Europe and North America.

Project NCHRP 20-83(1) Interim Report 1 15 influence Matrices / affect Curves As debated in section 2, the influence Curve for each driving pressure is a graphical representation of just how that aspect will influence service (and thus potential freight flows) end time. We selected five time buckets (0-2 years, 2-5 years, 5-10 years, 10-20 years, and also 20-40 years). The 0-2 years bucket have the right to be taken into consideration current job while the 2-5 and also 5-10 buckets are much more short term and also the 10+ year buckets are lengthy term. A k-means cluster evaluation was conducted on the influence Curves to identify any kind of patterns. We discovered that every one of the driving forces complied with one the four types of affect curves: secure Growth, fast Growth, peak & Crest, and also Flat. These are presented in contempt stylized type in figure 8, below. Figure 8 varieties of affect Curves. The stable Growth and also Rapid Growth factors tend to start and also end in the exact same places, yet the course is very different. The Steady development forces have tendency to begin out slowly yet gather vapor and at some point have extensive influence. The Rapid expansion forces have a an ext accelerated affect that reaches steady state. Optimal & Crest forces exhibit a rising influence but at some point lose their influence. The idea is that together the factor becomes widespread, the businesses and also the economic climate adapt come it, and it loses any of its individual influence. Finally, over there are level forces that never ever really affect either thee freight patterns or company in general. Evaluation of sjuniorg8.comshot Scenarios The detailed influence Matrices because that each picture Scenario are displayed in appendix 3. Table 1, on the following page, provides a an introduction of the scenarios in regards to the general classification (Social, Technology, Economic, Environmental, and Political),

Project NCHRP 20-83(1) Interim Report 1 16 the Flow influence (Sourcing, Destinations, Routing, Volume, and also Value Density), and also Influence form (Steady Growth, rapid Growth, top & Crest, and Flat).

Project NCHRP 20-83(1) Interim Report 1 17 category Flow affect Influence type Driving force Social technology Economic ecological Political Sourcing Destinations Routing Volume Value thickness Steady development Rapid expansion Peak & Crest flat Comment Aging that the US populace X X X ⇑ X Predetermined aspect Increase in global Trade X X X ⇑ ⇔ X Tight agreement – potential blind spot increasing Power of arising Markets X X X X ⇑ ⇔ X bound to worldwide trade worldwide Climate Regulation X X X X ⇓ X Low hesitation in short and also mid hatchet – high in long term climb of Protectionism X X X X ⇓ X High suspicion with diminish impact an individual Fabrication X X X X ⇓ ⇓ X High hesitation in the long term The Senseable Network X X X Predetermined element Increase in Sustainability regulations X X X X ⇓ ⇑ X Moderate level of uncertainty boost in Sustainability Customer demand X X X X ⇓ ⇑ X suspicion and affect increases with time increase in an international Security pertains to X X X X X an extremely low uncertainty and affect levels – potential blind spot increase in Commodity prices and accessibility X X X ⇑ X Too basic for commodities – have to isolate fuel added Points of Entry open up X X X ⇑ X hesitation and impact increases with time Table 1 category of the 12 single Shot driving Forces. One X indicates the classification. For the circulation impact, an up or down arrowhead indicates that that factor increases or decreases, respectively. A sideways arrow indicates a mix.

Project NCHRP 20-83(1) Interim Report 1 18 note from the table over that the scenarios to be a mix that Social, Technology, Economic, Environmental, and also Political forces. The Flow impact and the Influence kind ratings were culled native the workshop responses. Some vital takeaways from this evaluation are: • The participants had tendency to it is in overly influenced by existing events and also situations. The increase in Commodity price force included fuel together with other commodities. The affect of fuel ~ above the transportation experts overwhelmed the various other commodity effects. We separated the end fuel from other assets going forward. • The attendees classified the “Aging of the us Population” force as gift a Steady development type. While this force will have actually tremendous impact on freight flows, it have the right to be considered a predetermined element. That is, the is a pressure that is slow transforming and will occur regardless of the scenario. The idea is that while this might be a steering force, it will take place in any and also all futures and also thus is no a defining or distinguishing factor. We more refined the demographic forces for the Stakeholders Survey. Specifically, we concentrated on two of the much more contentious element of demographic trends for the survey: life expectancy and also urban density. • The “Senseable Network” force, like the aging pressure was additionally seen to it is in a predetermined element. The visibility of easily obtainable sensor data will be consisted of in all future scenarios. • The “Increase in worldwide Trade” force was amazing in that it had actually tight consensus in the group for being rapid Growth. This suggests that there can be a blind spot in the participants’ projection of the future. This pressure is basically an expansion of the instance today – therefore it deserve to be considered the “unofficial-official future.” that was essential to further refine this in the survey to know the size of global trade that might have major implications. • The “Rise in Protectionism” pressure was unique in the it was assumed to have actually Peak & Crest kind of influence. Together protectionism increases, it has actually less that an impact over time. This was the only force that fit this pattern. • The three environmental forces (International Climate Regulation, increase in Sustainability Regulations, and also Increase in Sustainability customer Demand) were designed to record different facets of the environment’s affect on freight flows. The an initial captured the impact of worldwide regulations and also bureaucracy, the second captured the impact of domestic “top-down” green rules, and the last recorded “bottom-up” or demand driven environment-friendly practices. The top down pressures were regarded as being more likely to occur and also have much more impact 보다 the customer driven force. • The “Security Concerns” force was viewed as having tiny to no affect or influence on business. The was believed that this is much more of the current situation and also might be taken into consideration a predetermined element as well as a potential remote spot.

Project NCHRP 20-83(1) Interim Report 1 19 Stakeholder Survey based upon the results of the interaction Workshop, a set of twenty an ext refined Driving forces were produced as displayed in Table 2 and Table 3, below. Control force summary Social modern technology Economic eco-friendly Political Sourcing Destinations Routing Volume Value density Re-domestication of manufacturing an extensive re-domestication the manufacturing ago to the United claims X X X X X reduction in an international trade sustained reduction in worldwide trade volume (both imports and exports) possibly as result of rise of protectionism, pandemics, etc. X X X increased security threats large increase in both the number and magnitude of defense threats (domestic and also abroad) X X X X eco-friendly regulations Stringent environmental and also sustainability regulations adopted and strictly imposed by the united States and most other nations X X X X High and also volatile fuel price Dramatic rise in price and also volatility of every oil based fuel X X X X X X increase of BRIC markets dominance of customer markets in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and other nations leading to increased demand for assets manufactured in the United says X X X X Low-cost batch manufacturing Widespread fostering of technologies enabling efficient and also low-cost tiny batch production for most consumer goods X X X X digital retailing Dramatic shift towards online purchase and point-of-use distribution leading to reduction of physical sleeve stores X X X X X X Senseable network Widespread capability to capture and also monetize real-time sensing data on all products, vehicles, and also facilities throughout a it is provided chain at basically no price X X Recycling regulation Omnipresent enforcement of regulations and also rules requiring recycling and also re-use of every manufactured assets X X X X Average period of 100 average life expectations reaching 100 year in the United says X X X Table 2 Candidate Driving forces for Stakeholders Survey, component 1.

Project NCHRP 20-83(1) Interim Report 1 20 driving force description Social an innovation Economic environmental Political Sourcing Destinations Routing Volume Value density East coast ports Shifting suggest of entry for a bulk of imports come the East coast (e.g. As result of rise in production in Africa, an ext ships using the Panama Canal, etc.) X X X X new agriculture powerhouses new countries (such together Russia or India) emerging as farming powerhouses replacing the United states in part food products X X X X X Water scarcity Pervasive water scarcity in some regions bring about a palliation in exporting assets that one of two people contain water (e.g. Fruit) or call for a water extensive manufacturing procedure (e.g., soda, electronic chips) X X X X environment-friendly customer demand The sustainability and environmental “friendliness” of a product becoming the dominant factor for customer demand because that most commodities supplanting price X X X X X Mega cities Over 90% that the United states consumers living and also working in mega-region cities and gathered urban areas X X X X Zero immigration Immigration into the joined States lessened essentially to zero X X X Battery vehicles new battery technologies dramatically reducing the cost and increasing the performance and selection of digital vehicles X X X X Commodity price volatility shifting geo-politics and other determinants leading to incredible price volatility for practically all assets such as wheat, copper, and also lithium X X X X enhanced value density advancements in manufacturing, materials, and also other technologies boosting the typical value every ton moved in the United states from ~$700 every ton (in 2008) to over $2000 per ton X X X X Table 3 Candidate Driving pressures for Stakeholders Survey, part 2. As shown in Table 4, there was a wide range of responses in regards to the expected affect and Probability the occurrence.

Project NCHRP 20-83(1) Interim Report 1 22 highest Average, the lowest typical Deviation and the shortest Coefficient that Variation. Figure 9, below, plots the affect against the probability for each the the twenty control forces. The driving force in the top right corner (high influence and high probability) is the High and Volatile Fuel Price force. Number 9 Plot of every driving force as the average influence versus the typical probability. Another means to look at the driving pressures is come compare just how they rank. Number 10 plots the rankings of each of the driving forces for impact versus Probability. Keep in mind that many of the forces have correlated probabilities and impacts. There are some anomalies, however. Reducing worldwide Trade and also the Re-domestication of manufacturing are both viewed to be very impactful (ranked fourth and 6th respectively) but are perceived to be very unlikely to happen (ranked 25th and also 24th respectively). This suggests that these can be remote spots worth including in the potential scenarios. Whereas the Recycling Regulations, digital Retailing, and also Battery Vehicles forces are viewed as being really likely to occur (Ranked 5th, 4th, and 2nd, respectively) but will have next come no impact (ranked 10th, 12th, and also 17th, respectively). These appear to be forces that are currently having an result today and also should most likely be taken into consideration as predetermined elements.

Project NCHRP 20-83(1) Interim Report 1 23 number 10 Plot of impact rank (Rank=1 is the many important) versus Probability rank. Number 11 shows the driving forces grouped into their STEEP classifications and also plotted for affect versus Probability. Keep in mind that the political forces are both the least impactful, as a group, and also the the very least likely come occur. The other 4 categories are relatively similar in location. Figure 11 Plot that STEEP determinants for affect versus Probability. The complete distributions and plots the the probability versus the impact for every driving pressure are presented on the adhering to pages in figure 12, number 13, figure 14, number 15, and also Figure 16.

Project NCHRP 20-83(1) Interim Report 1 24 figure 12 Histogram the candidate driving forces, component 1 of 5.

Project NCHRP 20-83(1) Interim Report 1 25 number 13 Histogram the candidate steering forces, part 2 the 5.

Project NCHRP 20-83(1) Interim Report 1 26 figure 14 Histogram the candidate driving forces, component 3 of 5.

Project NCHRP 20-83(1) Interim Report 1 27 figure 15 Histogram of candidate control forces, part 4 that 5.

Project NCHRP 20-83(1) Interim Report 1 28 figure 16 Histogram of candidate control forces, component 5 the 5.

Project NCHRP 20-83(1) Interim Report 1 29 Further evaluation of the driving pressures did not reveal any far-reaching correlations in the rating that probability and impact to lift (shipper, carrier, government, etc.), place (C-level, vice president, Director, manager), sector, or firm size. The following insights were gathered indigenous the inspection results: • many of the driving pressures had highly correlated probabilities and also impacts. This indicates that the inspection respondents go not different out the two various dimensions. The cases where there to be anomalies was standing out. • The following forces appear to be predetermined and therefore will certainly be included to some level in every of the proposed scenarios: High and volatile fuel prices, Battery vehicles, Senseable networks, and Online retailing. • The two pressures that appeared to it is in the many impactful there is no the corresponding high probabilities space Reducing global Trade and Re-domestication of residential Manufacturing. These are connected in that they both signal a retreat native the global trading fads of the critical half-century. These room wild cards the bear consist of in the last scenarios. • The coefficient of sports is a an excellent indicator of hesitation or variability. The driving pressures with the many variability in the probability of developing are: Average period of 100, Zero Immigration, environment-friendly Customer Demand, and also Reduction in an international Trade. The high CV numbers indicate a the majority of disagreement end the potential outcome and also while these forces can not define the different scenarios, they should be included. • While forces previously determined as either predetermined or wild cards will certainly constitute the main features of the future scenarios, the remainder of the pressures will no be overlooked however rather woven into the storyline to enrich the scenarios top top a case by instance basis.